Given Netanyahu’s past denunciation of the PA and his refusal to offer detailed day-after plans, these discussions are potentially significant. But as with every other aspect of the Gaza tragedy, the effort could raise false hopes that a breakthrough is near — when the reality on the ground remains brutal combat.
The participants in this trilateral back-channel held a key meeting last week in Abu Dhabi. The host was Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE’s foreign minister. Joining him were Ron Dermer, who is probably Netanyahu’s closest adviser, and Brett McGurk, the director of Middle East policy for President Biden’s National Security Council.
The initiative was pushed by the Emiratis, who developed a trusting relationship with Israel and Netanyahu during negotiation of the 2020 Abraham Accords at the end of President Donald Trump’s administration. In a sense, this dialogue could be described as “Abraham Redux.”
Arab, Israeli and U.S. officials shared details of the discussions but requested anonymity because of its sensitivity. The Abu Dhabi meeting was first reported on Tuesday by Axios.
The Emiratis convened the meeting because they were frustrated by the lack of creative thinking about postwar Gaza, one official explained. Abdullah floated ideas about how security and political matters might be managed once the war ends, in what the Biden administration describes as Phase 2 of its cease-fire plan. The UAE summarized its ideas in a white paper sent to the White House on Tuesday.
The essence of the UAE proposal is that a “reformed” Palestinian Authority, as the internationally recognized governing authority for Gaza, could invite international partners to support security and humanitarian aid in Gaza during a “stabilization mandate” that might last up to a year. The Emiratis are said to favor Fayad, the PA’s prime minister from 2007 to 2013, as leader of the reform effort. The Israelis appear willing to accept him. Fayad did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.
The Emirati proposal envisions that the PA would solicit military and intelligence support from a range of countries. Despite Netanyahu’s past strident opposition to the PA, Dermer is said to have conveyed that Israel might tacitly accept this approach.
Possible Arab security providers include Egypt, Morocco, Qatar and the UAE itself, officials said. The parties discussed potential security backing from non-Arab countries, too, including Italy, Rwanda, Brazil, Indonesia and perhaps a leading Central Asian nation. The United States would provide command-and-control and logistical support from a nearby base in Egypt. A potentially controversial part of the plan would be armed support from U.S.-based security contractors.
The back-channel group has discussed seeking backing for this stabilization force from the U.N. General Assembly, rather than the Security Council, where it might face a Russian veto or paralyzing negotiations. The initial stabilization period would be followed by a “reconstruction mandate” that could stretch for years.
In its white paper, the UAE is said to have detailed its basic ideas: After fighting ends, the “reformed” PA would issue its invitation to security providers. Israel would agree not to undermine this Gaza effort by making provocative moves in the West Bank that could explode the security situation there. The Emiratis also hope the United States will work to refine a “road map” toward an eventual Palestinian state, even though Israel wouldn’t endorse it.
The Emirati plan envisions a gradually expanding zone of internationally supported security moving from north to south in Gaza, one sector at a time. This approach is similar to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal for security “bubbles,” though the emissaries don’t use that term. Though Netanyahu publicly rejected Gallant’s proposal, Dermer’s involvement suggests he might be ready to accept a rebranded version of it.
The Emiratis have played a growing role in Gaza, with a hospital there and other humanitarian efforts. They have tapped a network of supporters of Mohammed Dahlan, a former top PA security official from Gaza who has lived in Abu Dhabi since Hamas came to power. Dahlan, a controversial figure in Palestinian circles, doesn’t intend to return to the enclave, officials said. But the UAE hopes he will continue tapping a network of longtime supporters behind the scenes, officials told me.
Given Netanyahu’s past disdain for day-after planning, it’s good that his team is finally engaging these issues seriously. But the real requirement in Gaza — the sine qua non, literally, is a real and lasting end to the war. And the Abu Dhabi dialogue, encouraging as it is, hasn’t done anything yet to silence the guns.
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