Officials caution that although the framework is in place, a final pact probably isn’t imminent, and the details are complex and will take time to work through.
If final agreement could be reached, it would be a ringing validation of President Biden’s patient diplomacy, which has tried to balance America’s role as peacemaker in the Middle East with strong military support for Israel. It would also create a potential valedictory moment for the president, affording him a chance to step back honorably from his quest for a second term or, conversely, to double down.
Like most peace agreements, this one would reflect in part the exhaustion of both sides. After nine months of war, Israel wants to rest its troops and prepare for possible conflicts with Iran and its proxies. Hamas, in “rough shape” in its underground lair, according to one U.S. official, is said to be low on ammunition and supplies. It’s also facing growing pressure from battered Palestinian civilians, who are increasingly vocal in demanding a truce.
The agreement, described Wednesday by U.S. officials, envisions a three-stage resolution of the conflict. First would be a six-week cease-fire, during which Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages, including all female prisoners, all men over 50 and all who are wounded. Israel would release hundreds of Palestinians from its prisons and withdraw its troops from densely populated areas toward the eastern border of Gaza. Humanitarian aid would flow in, hospitals would be repaired, and crews would begin clearing the rubble.
The stumbling block has been the transition to, in which Hamas would release the male soldiers who remain as hostages and both sides would agree to a “permanent end to hostilities” with “a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.” Each side feared the other would use the initial pause to rearm and return to battle. And Israel wanted to make sure it achieved its primary goal of blocking Hamas from ruling Gaza again.
The breakthrough came recently, when Hamas relented on its demand for a written guarantee on a permanent end to the fighting. Instead, it accepted the reassuring language of a U.N. Security Council resolution, passed last month, affirming the U.S.-negotiated deal. Here’s the key passage: “If the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue,” the U.N. resolution says. American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators would “work to ensure negotiations keep going until all the agreements are reached and phase two is able to begin.”
Israel and Hamas have both signaled their acceptance of an “interim governance” plan that would begin with Phase 2, in which neither Hamas nor Israel would rule Gaza. Security would be provided by a force trained by the United States and backed by moderate Arab allies, drawn from a core group of about 2,500 supporters of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza who have already been vetted by Israel. Hamas has told mediators that it is “prepared to relinquish authority to the interim governance arrangement,” a U.S. official said.
As security expands in postwar Gaza, the peace plan envisions a third phase, with what the U.N. resolution describes as a “multi-year reconstruction plan.”
As U.S. mediators moved closer to finalizing this deal, they got crucial help from their diplomatic partners, Qatar and Egypt. To pressure Hamas, Qatar told the group’s representatives they could not remain in Doha if they rejected the pact. Egypt provided last-minute help by accepting an innovative U.S. proposal to block any new tunnels across the border between Egypt and Gaza after Israel withdraws its troops.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has emerged as a key contact in the negotiations, issued a statement Wednesday noting “progress … with Egypt” toward a plan “that will stop smuggling attempts and will cut off potential supplies for Hamas.”
If the cease-fire deal is clinched, it will open the way for two other major changes in the Middle East landscape — involving Lebanon and Saudi Arabia — that could reduce the danger of a broader war.
Lebanon has signaled that following a Gaza truce, it would endorse a package that includes withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north from the border to near the Litani River. The agreement would also include Israeli acceptance of border changes that Hezbollah has long demanded and other confidence-building measures to end the deadly exchange of rocket fire between the two sides.
The Lebanon framework has been negotiated by Amos Hochstein, a member of national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s staff. Rather than talking directly with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia that dominates Beirut, Hochstein has met with Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of the Lebanese parliament and a key Hezbollah ally.
A final possible bonus of a Gaza cease-fire is that Saudi Arabia has signaled it is prepared to “move forward on normalization” of relations with Israel, according to a U.S. official. Riyadh wants a pathway toward a Palestinian state as part of such a deal, but that’s currently a bridge too far for a traumatized Israel. Finalizing normalization will take time and diplomatic finesse.
The Gaza war has been a nightmare for all the combatants — starting with the horrific Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack through to a shattering Israeli retaliatory campaign that killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. It was a searing test, too, for Biden, who tried to be Israel’s stalwart ally even as he clashed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war’s civilian toll.
“Every war must end,” as strategist Fred Iklé wrote about Vietnam. Gaza isn’t over. But as one White House official put it late Wednesday: “fingers crossed.”
