Less than a day after President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, the national political landscape has dramatically shifted. While Biden had been slipping in the polls, particularly after his disastrous debate performance, a new national poll indicated that Harris could secure a victory against the Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.
However, in all seven battleground states that are likely to decide the election’s outcome, Trump has maintained a slight lead over his Democratic rivals.
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Trump officially accepted the Republican nomination at the GOP convention last week, but the Democratic National Convention will not start until August 19, giving Democrats a little less than a month to amass support for a new nominee. Harris is more than likely to take up the helm, with over 40% of the 1,968 delegates she needs pledging their support to her on the first day of her candidacy.
Here’s how Harris would fare against Trump in the seven key swing states, according to the most recent polls.
Arizona
Though polls from the aftermath of Biden’s exit from the race have not yet been released, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on July 15 and 16, days before Biden’s announcement, showed Trump leading over Biden in Arizona. Out of the 800 voters surveyed, 49% supported Trump, 44% favored Biden, 4% chose a third-party candidate, and 3% undecided.
Harris polled slightly below Trump, amassing 42% compared to his 48%. However, as Harris was still the vice presidential candidate when the survey was conducted, InsiderAdvantage political analyst Matt Towery said her weaker ratings were unsurprising, and will likely change in subsequent polls.
“With the mantel of nominee, her numbers could potentially improve,” he said.
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Georgia
An exclusive poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution released hours after President Joe Biden announced his departure from the ticket showed former President Donald Trump with a slight lead over Harris, with a 51% to 46% rating respectively, and a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Two percent of voters said they were undecided, 1% said they would vote for a third-party candidate, and another 1% said they would not vote for any presidential candidate.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between July 9 and 18, as Democratic lawmakers were increasingly calling on Biden to reconsider his bid for reelection and amid the assassination attempt on Trump. It was conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs.
Black voters, a crucial demographic in the Peach State, notably preferred Harris to Biden. Nearly 87% of respondents said they viewed Harris favorably, compared to the 82% who said the same of Biden.
Michigan
An exclusive poll conducted by the Detroit Free Press and released hours before Biden abandoned his reelection bid, showed former President Donald Trump with a notable 7-percentage-point lead over the incumbent president.
But with Harris as the nominee, those numbers could change. Recent polling from the Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a left-leaning environmental advocacy group, showed that voters preferred Trump to Harris, with 46% voting for him and 41% choosing the Vice President. However, if Harris were to choose Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate, the poll said, the candidates would tie with 46% each.
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Nevada
An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on July 15 and 16, days before Biden’s announced that he was dropping out of the race showed Trump leading over Biden in Nevada 49% to 42% in a sample of 800 voters.
Pitted against Harris, Trump increased his lead among the voters polled, receiving 50% of the vote compared to Harris’ 40%. But as with the Arizona poll, experts said those numbers will likely if Harris becomes the official nominee.
North Carolina
Though there are currently no polls pitting Harris against Trump, a recent survey from Emerson College conducted on July 15 and 16 showed Trump leading over Biden by 7 points, scoring 47% of respondents compared to Biden’s 38%.
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Pennsylvania
A little over a week after the shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former President Trump has retained a narrow 4.4% lead over incumbent President Biden, according to polling averages calculated by FiveThirtyEight.
However, even before Biden announced his departure from the race, figures from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling showed that voters were more enthusiastic about Harris than they were for Biden, putting her only two points behind Trump at 43% and 45% respectively.
Wisconsin
A Civiqs survey of 514 voters in Wisconsin showed Trump and Harris tied at 48%, with a 4.8% margin of error. The survey was conducted between July 13 and 16, in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s assassination attempt and before Biden withdrew from the race. At the time, 28% of voters surveyed said Biden’s age was the primary concern they had with the possibility of the president’s second term.
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