By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares tread cautiously on Monday ahead of a packed week of corporate earnings that should test the sky-high valuations of tech stocks, while investors hope a key reading in U.S. inflation will narrow the odds on a September rate cut.
Investors seemed well-prepared for news U.S. President Joe Biden had dropped out of the election race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic ticket.
Online betting site PredictIT showed pricing for a victory by Donald Trump had fallen 3 cents to 61 cents, while Harris climbed 11 cents to 38 cents. California governor Gavin Newsom, another possible Democratic challenger, trailed at 4 cents.
Markets took the news in their stride, with S&P 500 stock futures edging up 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Futures for 10-year Treasuries rose 3 ticks, while 10-year bond yields dipped 2 basis points to 4.22%.
“As Trump’s polling results have lifted, markets have favoured positions that anticipate more trade barriers and possibly higher inflation,” ANZ analysts said.
“Some polls have Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, and the Democrats will be hoping the next polls feature a Harris-driven bump.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2%, having shed 3% last week amid a general risk-off mood. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.6%, and South Korea’s benchmark index was down 0.4%.
U.S. second-quarter earnings are poised to dominate the week, with Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet kicking off the season for the “Magnificent Seven” megacap group of stocks.
Others reporting include General Electric, General Motors, Ford and Lockheed Martin.
The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17%, while profit for the communication services sector is seen rising about 22%.
Such gains would outpace the 11% estimated rise for the S&P 500 overall, according to LSEG IBES.
A busy week for economic news will culminate with the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure out on Friday. The core personal consumption expenditures index is seen rising 0.1% in June, pulling the annual pace down a tick to 2.5%.
Markets are wagering heavily that a benign outcome will underline the case for a September rate cut, which futures are pricing as a 97% chance.
Also due are figures for advance gross domestic product that are forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 1.9% in the second quarter, from 1.4% in the first.
The closely-watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.7%, suggesting some risk to the upside.
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 4.5%.
China is expected to leave its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged later on Monday.
Beijing released a policy document on Sunday outlining known ambitions, from developing advanced industries to improving the business environment, but showed no sign of imminent structural shifts in the world’s second-biggest economy.
In currency markets, the dollar gave back a little of last week’s safe haven gains as the euro edged up 0.2% to $1.0900. The dollar likewise dipped 0.2% on the Japanese yen to 157.21.
In commodity markets, gold held at $2,410 an ounce and not far from last week’s record high of $2,483.60. [GOL/]
Oil prices inched higher, with little sign of progress on a ceasefire deal in Gaza as Israeli forces battled Palestinian fighters in the southern city of Rafah on Sunday. [O/R]
Brent gained 39 cents to $83.02 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 42 cents to $80.55 per barrel.
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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