I love drafts. I can eat up any and all content related to the draft. I’ve read through JD Cameron’s Consensus Big Board. I’ve been watching the Destination: The Show episodes with draft conversation
That probably doesn’t surprise anyone reading this. What might surprise you is that I love watching pretty much all drafts. I don’t really watch much college football, and aside from being a Minnesota Vikings fan, my other favorite teams are my fantasy teams. However, I can watch the whole NFL draft, all seven rounds.
I don’t watch college basketball, and I barely watch any NBA games. However, I can watch the two rounds of the NBA draft.
I don’t watch the NHL. I don’t watch college hockey. I don’t watch the USHL, and I certainly don’t watch the European leagues. But I do enjoy following the NHL draft. Maybe that’s because three high school players from the town I live in have been drafted in the past three NHL drafts. There were two kids from the same school that I thought could be drafted in 2024. And, it’s fun seeing any Minnesotans get drafted.
I’m pretty sure I even retweeted the Lynx WNBA picks and the Minnesota PWHL team’s draft picks. And no, no watching either of those!
I don’t know what it is. I think a big part of it is seeing the excitement and enthusiasm of seeing a player hear his name and fulfill a big dream is exciting. Seeing the players’ families around them, the hugs, the tears, the interviews. It’s always so exciting.
But baseball’s annual draft is, of course, my favorite. In May, I passed the 20 years of blogging mark, and following the minor leagues and prospects have always been something I enjoyed. But I also loved following drafts. I remember playing a Babe Ruth ball game, wearing our ugly puke yellow/brown uniforms, and hearing that the Twins had drafted Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch. He quickly became one of my favorite players to follow, and almost as quickly found himself on the 1991 Twins Opening Day roster and winning his first World Series championship.
In 1990, everyone was talking about Todd Van Poppel. He fell in the draft because of dollars and his comments that he would not play for a team as bad as the Atlanta Braves. I think Atlanta did pretty well with that Larry Jones pick. The Twins picked RHP Todd Ritchie, a high school pitcher from Texas, like Van Poppel. In fact, when they faced each other, Ritchie was the winner.
The Twins have had some really strong first round picks the past few decades. Joe Mauer is obviously at the top of that list.
Ranking the Twins 1st Round Picks by bWAR (only those that signed with the Twins):
1.) Joe Mauer (2001): 55.2
2.) Torii Hunter (1993): 50.7
3.) Chuck Knoblauch (1989): 44.6
4.) Jay Bell (1984): 37.1
5.) Denard Span (2002): 27.9
6.) Byron Buxton (2012): 23.4
7.) Michael Cuddyer (1997): 17.8
8.) Kyle Gibson (2009): 15.8
9.) Jose Berrios (2012): 14.7
10.) Aaron Hicks (2008): 13.5
Other Successful Picks include: Matt Garza, Todd Walker, Mark Redman, Ben Revere. Glen Perkins was the 22nd overall pick in the 2004 draft. He pitched in three All Star games. Trevor Plouffe had a nice, solid Twins career.
Of course, several players are still active and early in their careers. Players like Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Brooks Lee, and Trevor Larnach have all contributed. Rooker played in the 2023 All Star game and is hitting again this year with Oakland.
The beauty of the draft is that scouting is not a science. Scouts are amazing. In many cases, they are following, taking notes on players when they are 15-16 years old and maybe they get drafted at age 18, and maybe it’s at 21 or 22. They are building relationships with the players, the families, coaches. They have seen it all, and driven many miles on dark, desolate roads in the middle of nowhere and dealing with traffic in metro areas.
Consider, in just over 60 years of the June MLB draft, only four #1 overall picks have made the Hall of Fame. Next Sunday, Joe Mauer will join Harold Baines, Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Remember when the Padres took Matt Bush #1 overall and Justin Verlander went #2? Danny Goodwin was twice the top pick and you have to be really deep into baseball history to know that name.
With the #2 overall pick, the Twins have selected Byron Buxton (23.4 bWAR) and Adam Johnson (-1.1 bWAR). With the #3 overall pick, the Twins have taken Dave McCarty (-2.1 bWAR) and Willie Banks (1.0 bWAR). With the #4 overall pick, the Twins have selected Bryan Oelkers (-0.9 bWAR) and Kohl Stewart (0.2 bWAR).
Kohl Stewart was an incredible quarterback in high school and had a full ride to Texas Tech to play football. But he also had a great arm. It wasn’t a stretch at all for the Twins to take him with the #4 pick. So, does that mean the Twins should avoid high school star quarterbacks? They could wind up with a Stewart-like career (which, by the way included a couple of seasons in the big leagues. They could wind up with Bubba Starling, who go a few ABs with the Royals. Or, they could get a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Joe Mauer.
Twins fans are incredibly excited about last year’s top pick, Walker Jenkins. He was taken with the #5 overall pick. The other times the Twins have had the #1 overall pick? Nick Gordon in 2014, and BJ Garbe in 1999.
If you will be paying attention to the MLB Draft (starting tonight, ending Tuesday afternoon), you will definitely want to bookmark JD Cameron’s Consensus Big Board. He’s got mini-profiles on the top 187 players available in the draft (when consolidating many of the most reliable sources in the industry).
But even “the industry” isn’t always right. It is really hard to get to the big leagues, much less stick. So many things can happen.
Remember the 2018 MLB draft. With the 59th overall pick, the Minnesota Twins selected Ryan Jeffers, a catcher from UNCW (UNC at Wilmington). As the commentators on MLB Network tried to talk about the pick, they acknowledged that Jeffers wasn’t on most Top 200 draft prospect lists. I believe I remember – and you can correct me if I’m wrong – there was one Top 500 draft prospect list that he wasn’t on.
But the Twins absolutely loved him. His bat, approach, power potential. His smarts. But they also saw potential with him defensively that most in The Industry didn’t see. He appeared much higher on the Twins board. They were completely convicted in taking the backstop.
That doesn’t always mean that they’re right. There have likely been other picks that they made that were looked at as reaches that didn’t pan out.
If you were to re-draft the 2018 draft based on what we know now, where would Jeffers be selected. A catcher who can be adequate behind the plate and hit too? Below is where all players drafted in the 2018 draft, who signed, rank by bWAR (fWAR in parentheses).
2018 Draft by bWAR (through Friday games):
- Nico Hoerner (24) – 13.0 (12.9)
- Steven Kwan (163) – 12.5 (11.9)
- Jeremy Pena (102) – 10.9 (7.8)
- Logan Gilbert (14) – 9.8 (10.7)
- Tarik Skubal (255) – 9.5 (10.2)
- Cal Raleigh (90) – 9.2 (10.7)
- Shane McClanahan (31) – 8.7 (7.9)
- Brady Singer (18) – 8.4 (9.4)
- Ryan Jeffers (59) – 7.2 (6.8)
- Brendan Donovan (213) – 7.2 (4.9)
- Jonathan India (5) – 6.8 (7.5)
- Lars Nootbar (243) – 6.7 (7.3)
- Joe Ryan (210) – 6.1 (7.5)
- Kyle Bradish (121) – 6.1 (5.8)
- Drew Rasmussen (185) – 6.0 (5.7)
- Jarren Duran (220) – 6.0 (5.4)
- Brice Turang (21) – 5.7 (2.3)
The Twins have four picks in the top 70 picks tonight, and we are going to try to find out as much as we can about each, and we’re going to cheer them on and hope for the best. Will all four make the big leagues? How many will be able to get five (or ten?) years of service time? Will injuries be a factor?
I don’t know about you, but I’m excited to find out!
No Parker for Twins
Of note, in the 2023 draft, the Twins selected 1B/OF Sam Parker out of high school in Georgia. He didn’t sign and instead went to Chipola. With recent rule changes, there has been a return of the draft-and-follow. In other words, the Twins could have let him go to Chipola and then tried to work out a deal to bring him into the organization before the 2024 draft. Well, the Twins and Parker were unable to reach an agreement, so he will remain in college. He will also be eligible to be drafted again this year since he went to a two-year school.
All About the Helium
Recently, the Twins released 2019 top draft pick Keoni Cavaco. He had been the 13th overall pick in that draft. He struggled that summer, and then lost a full development season in 2020. Some may say that he was a “helium pick” that year. Simply put, he wasn’t an obvious first round pick and really came on strong his senior year and moved up draft boards late. So, should the Twins never draft a “helium” guy again? I would certainly hope no organization would ever think like that. That’s like saying the Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn’t pan out so the Twins should never sign a player from Japan again. It’s a ridiculous thought, and one person’s results have nothing to do with another’s.
What to expect with pick #21?
Last year, the 21st overall pick was the Cardinals. They took OF Chase Davis out of the University of Arizona. A year earlier, the Mariners selected infielder Cole Young with the 21st pick. He played in Saturday’s Futures Game. The Cubs took lefty Jordan Wicks from Kansas State in 2021, and he debuted in 2023. Jordan Walker was the Cardinals pick, 21st overall, in the 2020 draft. In 2019, the Braves selected infielder Braden Shewmake from Texas A&M. The Brewers took prep shortstop Brice Turang with the 21st pick in 2018. Fellow Brewer DL Hall was the 21st overall pick, by the Orioles in 2017.
OK, not going to go through all of the #21 overall picks. The Twins who have been picked with the 21st overall pick are Alex Wimmers in 2010 and Matt Moses in 2003. Wimmers had been the Big 10 Pitcher of the Year in 2010. He fought injuries and sometimes control issues as a minor leaguer, and got limited opportunity out of the Twins bullpen. Moses was selected, and after a more thorough physical, he was found to have a hole in his heart. It was surgically fixed, but Moses never reached the big leagues.
The Twins also drafted catcher Jason Varitek with the 21st overall pick in the 1993 draft out of Georgia Tech, but he didn’t sign. Anyone remember Dale Soderholm, a shortstop from Coral Park High School in Miami? The Twins made him the #21 overall pick in 1971.
Other names you might recognize who were taken 21st overall include: Rick Sutcliffe, Atlee Hammaker, Todd Worrell, Jake Westbrook, Gorman Thomas, and Ian Kennedy. Other #21 picks Twins should should remember include Jason Tyner (1998, Mets) and Boof Bonser (2000, Giants). Edina High School’s Tom Nevers was the #21 overall pick in 1990 by the Astros.
In general, you’re certainly not going to get a ‘sure thing’ drafting 21st overall, but that doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t either. There will be high school players hoping to be bought out of a college commitment that slide. And there will be college hitters who may have a couple of solid tools.
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